And so it begins.  Most deemed it long overdue, but regardless of your feelings on  the Dick Jauron tenure, it mercifully concluded this week.  The Perry Fewell era commences, albeit an expected brief one, as the Buffalo Bills travel to Jacksonville to take on the surging Jaguars.

If the odds weren’t already stacked against the Bills defensively, the unit suffers another blow as starting defensive tackle Marcus Stroud will miss the game with a knee injury.  Kyle Williams is questionable, also with a knee injury, meaning Spencer Johnson and John McCargo will see plenty of time.

Leading tackler Keith Ellison was placed on injured reserve with a thigh injury.  Converted safety Bryan Scott will get another start in his place.  Last week Scott was constantly overpowered at the point of attack and although he’s a high-effort playing, playing linebacker may be biting off more than he can chew. Nic Harris should see an increased amount of reps.

Terrence McGee is questionable with a knee injury.  If he can’t go, it again forces Reggie Corner into a starting role and Ellis Lankster becomes the nickel. Lankster has yet to see extensive playing time but that could easily change today.  Ashton Youboty (ankle) has already been ruled out.

Bills defenders drop more often than a post-mortem TuPac record, so you’ll have to forgive Maurice Jones-Drew for salivating.

It doesn’t take ownership of a master’s degree in prognostication to foresee what Jacksonville is going to do.  Run Jones-Drew left, run him right and run him up the middle.  Oh, and they’ll pass plenty— to Maurice Jones-Drew. Knowing you have to stop him and executing are two separate entities.  Chris Johnson, anyone?

Last week everyone from the coaches, players and fans, right down to the hot dog vendor knew Johnson was going to get the ball early and often.  But even if the Titans game plan leaked of tunnel vision that would make J.P. Losman cringe, the Bills defense was helpless to stop it.  Johnson ran for 132 yards and two scores, and added another 100 yards in receptions.

Jones-Drew is sure to pose similar problems. He’s fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (860) and first in touchdowns (12).  He also has 32 receptions, fourth most among running backs.  Unless the Bills find some kind of magic formula, such as learning to tackle and having the offense stay on the field, MJD is going to make it a long day for the injury depleted defense.

Offensively of course, the big change is a physically healthy Trent Edwards not starting at quarterback.  He’s been jettisoned to the bench in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick.  While neither quarterback has risen above mediocrity, Fewell is going with Fitzpatrick because he thinks he gives them the best chance to win this week.

There’s yet another starting change in the offensive line too.   Andy Levitre moves over from left guard to tackle in place of injured Demetrius Bell (knee).  Seth McKinney will move into Levitre’s spot.

Shawn Nelson also gets his first start at tight end after Derek Fine (knee) was placed on season ending injured reserve.

The Bills offense continues to be downright insipid.  They’re averaging just 15.5 points per game for the season and have been held under 300 total yards in eight of their past nine games.

The combination of decimating injuries and a road game against a team that’s won three in a row at home is at best unpromising.   The Jags have shaken off a slow to start to win three of their last four in moving to 5-4 and very much in the AFC wildcard race.

While Jones-Drew deservedly gets most the headlines, he’s no longer the only reason for defenses to worry their offense.  David Garrad finally has a legit receiving threat in Michael Sims-Walker.  After an anything but spectacular first two years in the league, Sims-Walker has come on in 2009.  He has 39 catches for 603 yards and  5 touchdowns this year.  Former Jag Drayton Florence will be matched up against him often.

The Jags are heavily favored (nine points) but by no means are a complete team.  The defense has been nearly as abysmal as Buffalo’s offense, so something has to give.  They’re allowing 24.4 points per game (27th in the NFL) and giving up 357.6 yards per contest (23rd).  They’re not very good at stopping the run or pass, so if Buffalo can somehow muster a better offensive effort in Fewell’s coaching debut, the opportunity for a shoot out exists.

The Jags defense isn’t helped by the loss of Rashean Mathis, out with an injured groin.  Second leading tackler Justin Durant is questionable with a concussion.

It’s been written ad nauseam, but maybe this is the week Terrell Owens finally brings out a monster performance worthy of his monster salary.  Owens has a paltry 366 receiving yards on  26 receptions through nine games, and that’s on the heels of a season-best 85 last week in Tennessee.  He’s had only one other game in which he’s amassed 60 yards (Miami in week four).  Interestingly, Owens is just 92 yards away from overtaking Marvin Harrison for fourth on the league’s all time list, though at this rate it’s not a lock to happen anytime soon.

If the Bills are looking for a silver lining, they can find it by going back to last year when they defeated Jacksonville in their building, 20-16.  They also held MJD to just 17 yards on seven carries in the win.

Following the game the Bills host consecutive divisional contests against Miami and the New York Jets.  While they’re all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, Fewell is coaching for a long term job, and many players are performing for theirs, whether they know it or not.

Maybe they’ll surprise today.  Then again, probably not.  Prediction: Jacksonville 34-17.